[2026.04/27~05/01] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | FOMC·BOJ·BOE·ECB Super Week
📌 Next Week Outlook Summary
A 'super week' lies ahead with policy decisions from four major central banks (Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB) and a wave of US Big Tech earnings. KOSPI is expected to test whether it can settle above the 6,500 mark and break through last week's intraday high of 6,557.76 toward fresh all-time highs.
📊 Last Week Market Summary
Last week (April 20~24), Korean equities posted a strong rally driven by extended ceasefire momentum and earnings-season expectations. KOSPI closed at 6,475.63, recording a weekly gain of +4.21%, with the intraday high reaching 6,557.76 — comfortably surpassing the previous all-time high of 6,347.41. KOSDAQ also closed at its weekly peak of 1,203.84, up +3.15% for the week, reclaiming the psychologically important 1,200 level.
Weekly Index Performance (4/20~4/24)
| Index | Open | Close | High | Low | Volume | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,213.92 | 6,475.63 | 6,557.76 | 6,176.75 | 430,563.3만 | +4.21% |
| KOSDAQ | 1,167.10 | 1,203.84 | 1,203.84 | 1,152.34 | 757,863.7만 | +3.15% |
Daily Performance
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Change | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/20 (Mon) | 6,219.09 | +0.44% | 1,174.85 | +0.41% |
| 4/21 (Tue) | 6,388.47 | +2.72% | 1,179.03 | +0.36% |
| 4/22 (Wed) | 6,417.93 | +0.46% | 1,181.12 | +0.18% |
| 4/23 (Thu) | 6,475.81 | +0.90% | 1,174.31 | -0.58% |
| 4/24 (Fri) | 6,475.63 | 0.00% | 1,203.84 | +2.51% |
Tuesday (4/21) marked a clear inflection point as KOSPI surged +2.72% in a single session — the strongest daily move of the week — establishing the trend reversal that drove the entire rally. On Friday (4/24), KOSDAQ jumped +2.51%, signaling a clear rotation into small- and mid-cap names. While KOSPI has already broken its previous all-time closing high (6,347.41), there remains roughly 1.3% upside between Friday's close (6,475.63) and last week's intraday peak (6,557.76). Whether the index can punch through into fresh territory will be the key question for international investors next week.
🌙 Global Market Trends
US equities posted firm gains last week, led by technology names. NASDAQ outperformed with a +1.63% weekly gain, while the DOW ended slightly lower at -0.16%, highlighting clear divergence across sectors.
US Major Indices (Last Week's Close)
| Index | Close | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,165.08 | +0.80% |
| NASDAQ | 24,836.60 | +1.63% |
| DOW | 49,230.71 | -0.16% |
FX & Commodities
| Item | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW | 1,476.32 | Holding elevated levels in the upper 1,470s |
| WTI Crude | Data feed anomaly — TBD | To be revisited after next session's data refresh |
USD/KRW remains a key pressure point for foreign-investor flow. The pair is sitting in the upper 1,470s, and the FOMC outcome along with any BOJ policy shift will be the dominant drivers of dollar-index direction. (WTI crude data was excluded due to a data-feed anomaly that will be reviewed in the next collection cycle.)
🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week
1. Semiconductors & AI Big Tech Earnings Momentum (Bullish)
US Big Tech earnings season kicks into full gear next week. Combined with strong earnings expectations for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, and the +1.63% NASDAQ rally seen last week, the AI/semiconductor value chain is set up for a constructive backdrop. TSMC's strong results carrying through, plus continued recovery in the memory cycle, should support semiconductor materials/parts/equipment names. With HBM (high-bandwidth memory) demand and the AI server investment cycle still robust, US Big Tech CapEx guidance will be the variable to watch — any upward revision should flow directly into Korean semiconductor equipment plays.
2. Central Bank Decisions: Rate-Sensitive Sectors (Caution)
Four major central banks deliver decisions in a single week — BOJ (Tue 4/28), BOC (Wed 4/29), Fed/FOMC (early Thu KST 4/30), then BOE and ECB (later 4/30). Consensus is for rates to be held across the board, but tone matters far more than the headline. A hawkish Powell could trigger profit-taking after the recent rally, while a dovish lean would be a tailwind for previously lagging financials, insurers, and brokerages. The BOJ angle is especially important for Korean equities: any signal of further normalization could pressure the yen-carry trade, with knock-on effects for Japanese exporters and foreign-investor flows into KOSPI.
3. Defense & Reconstruction Plays (Watch)
The extended-ceasefire narrative drove last week's rally, so the durability of post-war reconstruction and infrastructure plays is worth tracking. The cautionary view — 'verification before celebration' — is also valid; this is a name-by-name flow story rather than a sector-wide thesis. If ceasefire talks stall or geopolitical risk re-escalates, defense names could see sharp swings, while capital may rotate into reconstruction, construction, and energy infrastructure.
4. KOSDAQ Rotation: Secondary Battery & Bio (Watch)
Friday's +2.51% KOSDAQ rally — concentrated in retail-driven small/mid-caps — points to active rotation. If FOMC delivers a risk-on outcome, secondary battery, bio, and healthcare themes could extend the move. A clean hold above 1,200 would open the door for rotation into laggard small-cap IT, software, and gaming names. Daily turnover and margin-loan balances are the indicators to watch alongside the index.
🎯 Scenario Outlook
🟢 Bull Case
If the FOMC delivers a dovish tone and Big Tech earnings beat consensus, KOSPI could break above last week's intraday high of 6,557.76 and test the 6,700 region. Foreign inflows combined with KRW strength would be the catalyst combination, and KOSDAQ would likely make a run at 1,230. US GDP and Core PCE printing in line or slightly soft, alongside a measured BOJ message, would reinforce the disinflation narrative and extend the semiconductor/AI leadership.
🟡 Base Case
If central bank decisions land on consensus and Big Tech earnings come in mixed, KOSPI is likely to trade in a 6,400~6,550 range. Profit-taking and fresh buying balance out, with sector rotation continuing to drive activity beneath the index level.
🔴 Bear Case
A hawkish Powell, or upside surprises in Core PCE/GDP that push back on rate-cut expectations, could pull KOSPI back to 6,300. If USD/KRW pushes back above 1,500, foreign-investor outflows would intensify and KOSDAQ could retrace to 1,170.
📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule
Global Major Events (High Impact)
| Date (KST) | Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/28 (Tue) | 11:30 | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate | <0.75% | <0.75% |
| 4/28 (Tue) | 11:30 | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | - | - |
| 4/28 (Tue) | 11:31 | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report | - | - |
| 4/28 (Tue) | 14:30 | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | - | - |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 10:30 | AUD | CPI m/m | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 10:30 | AUD | CPI y/y | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 10:30 | AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 22:45 | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report | - | - |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 22:45 | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | - | - |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 22:45 | CAD | Overnight Rate | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| 4/29 (Wed) | 23:30 | CAD | BOC Press Conference | - | - |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 03:00 | USD | Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 03:00 | USD | FOMC Statement | - | - |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 03:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference (Powell) | - | - |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 20:00 | GBP | BOE Monetary Policy Report | - | - |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 20:00 | GBP | MPC Bank Rate Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 20:00 | GBP | Official Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:15 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Statement | - | - |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:30 | USD | Advance GDP q/q (Q1) | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index q/q | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 4/30 (Thu) | 21:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | - | - |
Earnings & Schedule Notes
- Next week is a rare 'super week' with US, Japan, UK, and Eurozone central bank decisions, alongside US Big Tech earnings (Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil majors also reporting).
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI on May 1 (KST 23:00, forecast 53.2 vs prior 52.7) will provide a fresh read on US manufacturing momentum.
- Korean and Chinese markets are closed on May 1 (Friday) for Labour Day — KOSPI/KOSDAQ will only trade four sessions, concentrating volatility.
- KOSPI has already cleared its prior all-time closing high (6,347.41) and now eyes the intraday high (6,557.76). Whether foreign and institutional investors buy together will determine if this becomes a sustained breakout (Korean weekly market preview reports).
⚡ Investment Checkpoints
- FOMC Press Conference (4/30 03:30 KST) — Powell's tone on the forward rate path and any dot-plot signaling.
- USD/KRW direction from 1,476 — further upside vs. potential KRW strength, and the pass-through to foreign flows.
- NASDAQ trajectory through Big Tech earnings, and the correlation with Korean semiconductor names.
- KOSPI support at 6,557 (last week's intraday high) and the psychological 6,500 line; downside breach of 6,400 as the risk-off trigger.
- Only four trading sessions for Korea due to the May 1 Labour Day holiday — volatility likely to be compressed into a shorter window.
- KOSDAQ — confirmation of a hold above 1,200 and any test of 1,230 resistance.
- Yen direction post-BOJ and the spillover to Asian equity flows.
- US Q1 Advance GDP (forecast 2.2%) and Core PCE (forecast 0.3%) — implications for the inflation path.
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
Next week is a true 'event super week' with four major central bank decisions (Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB), key US macro prints (Q1 GDP, Core PCE), and Big Tech earnings all stacked into a few sessions. Because consensus is uniformly for rates to be held, the tone of each central bank's communication and the forward guidance will drive short-term volatility far more than the headline decisions themselves. A hawkish reading from Powell could amplify profit-taking after the recent rally, so scaling in/out rather than aggressive directional trading may be the more disciplined approach.
KOSPI has now cleared its prior all-time closing high (6,347.41) and reached an intraday peak of 6,557.76 last week, so valuation scrutiny will intensify in parallel with the macro events. With USD/KRW holding in the upper 1,470s, foreign-flow volatility is also a live risk. The Korean market closes for Labour Day on May 1, which compresses next week into four sessions and creates a timing gap — the FOMC outcome will only filter into Korean trading two sessions later. Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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