Kai Research

📌 Next Week Outlook Summary After a week of record-breaking volatility, the first week of August (Aug 3–7) is shaping up to be a "direction-searching" period, with the US July jobs report, ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI, and semiconductor & big-tech earnings expected to set the tone. All eyes will be on whether the KOSPI's +17.91% rebound on July 31 can be sustained. 📊 Last Week Market Summary Last week's Korean market was a genuine roller-coaster. The KOSPI plunged -10.84% on July 28 in a "Black Monday"-style crash, extended losses through July 29–30, and then surged +17.91% on July 31 to recover much of the damage. Even so, the benchmark closed the week down -3.10% , while the KOSDAQ ended -5.36% , leaving clear scars from the volatility. Index Week Open Week Close Week High Week Low Weekly Return Weekly Volume KOSPI 6,806.27 6,595.45 6,806.27 5,262.77 -3.10% 187,766.8만 KOSDAQ 760.54 719.76 780.39 630.99 -5.36% 246,219.6만 Daily Performance D...

📌 One-Line Summary Wall Street rallied sharply overnight (Nasdaq +2.78%) as the FOMC held rates steady, setting the stage for a technical rebound attempt in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ after last week's semiconductor-driven sell-off pushed them into oversold territory. The Bank of Japan decision at 11:30 KST and lingering chip-sector volatility remain the key swing factors for today. 🌙 Overnight Markets U.S. equities closed sharply higher across all three major indices overnight, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the charge, up +2.78% . The immediate catalyst was the FOMC's decision to hold the benchmark rate at 3.75% (in line with forecasts), which eased tightening concerns. This provides a rebound rationale for Korean equities, which had fallen into oversold territory last week amid a semiconductor-led plunge, a sidecar trigger, and the KOSPI breaking below the 6,000 level. Index Close Change S&P 500 7,437.63 +1.66% Nasdaq 25,122.18 +2.78% Dow Jones 52,208.06 +1.19% That said...

📌 One-Line Summary After a brutal selloff (KOSPI -5.98% , KOSDAQ -6.12% ) in the previous session, Korean equities open FOMC day facing an overnight Wall Street plunge (Dow -2.19% ) and a stubbornly high USD/KRW near 1,443. Expect a highly volatile session where technical rebound attempts clash with further capitulation selling. 📉 Previous Session Recap The prior Korean trading session was nothing short of a 'Black Tuesday,' with both benchmarks triggering sidecar circuit breakers. The KOSPI collapsed -5.98% to close at 5,663.24, while the KOSDAQ tumbled -6.12% to 662.68. A sharp drop in US semiconductor names, SK Hynix's ADR falling below its offering price, and heavy foreign selling amid an elevated won-dollar rate combined to unleash a wave of panic selling. An early rebound attempt that briefly pushed the index above 6,200 faded as foreign outflows accelerated. Following such an exceptional decline, today's session is set to become a fierce tug-of-war between...

📌 One-Line Summary Following the semiconductor-driven 'Black Tuesday' crash (KOSPI -10.84% ), overnight U.S. markets stabilized on Dow strength ( +1.03% ). Today, Korean equities are expected to swing between an oversold technical rebound and renewed chip-sector jitters — a high-volatility session. 🌙 Overnight Markets U.S. equities closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones advanced as bargain hunters stepped in, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped, showing limited recovery in the semiconductor space. The shock from the prior day's chip plunge — which triggered a sidecar on Korean exchanges (Nvidia's decline and a 7%-plus drop in SK Hynix's U.S. ADR) — has eased somewhat over the past 24 hours, but the resilience of the semiconductor sector remains fragile. Index Close Change Dow Jones 52,747.32 +1.03% S&P 500 7,428.78 +0.21% Nasdaq 24,876.91 -0.22% The broad-market panic has cooled, but sentiment toward the large-cap chipmakers (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) ...

📌 One-Line Summary US markets closed mixed overnight, with the Dow firm but the Nasdaq slipping. The key question today is whether the KOSPI (6,755.75) and KOSDAQ (764.86) — which rebounded sharply on the back of semiconductor supply-chain names in the previous session — can absorb the Nasdaq's weakness and carry their upward momentum forward. Surging oil prices and a stubborn USD/KRW rate above the 1,460 level remain key swing factors. 🌙 Overnight Markets The three major US indices diverged overnight. The Dow, led by cyclical and value stocks, held firm, while concerns over AI investment costs and surging oil prices weighed on tech names, dragging the Nasdaq into negative territory. The S&P 500 finished only marginally higher. Index Close Change Dow Jones 52,210.08 +0.51% S&P 500 7,413.18 +0.02% Nasdaq 24,932.08 -0.18% Skepticism over the profitability of large-scale AI spending, combined with concerns that a spike in oil prices could push interest rates higher, brou...

📌 One-Line Summary After Friday's steep KOSPI plunge of -5.72% , the market is expected to open in a cautious, wait-and-see mode, with technical rebound hopes on oversold conditions squaring off against US-Iran geopolitical risk and surging oil prices. Rather than the index itself, watch for sector rotation into geopolitical beneficiaries such as refiners and defense names. 🌙 Overnight Markets US markets closed mixed overnight. The Dow and S&P 500 posted marginal gains, while the Nasdaq slipped as profit-taking pressure on technology names persisted. Concerns over AI investment spending and rising rate pressure from the oil surge weighed negatively on high-valuation growth stocks. Index Close Change Dow Jones 51,947.25 +0.46% S&P 500 7,411.98 +0.05% Nasdaq 24,975.82 -0.64% The lack of clear direction in US indices makes it difficult to provide strong upside momentum for the Korean market. With the Dow edging higher while the growth-heavy Nasdaq declined, today's sessi...

📌 Next Week Outlook Summary With the U.S. FOMC decision and a wave of Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet) all landing in a single week, the KOSPI is expected to face a heavyweight event window where another attempt to reclaim the 7,000 level ("7-cheon-pi") coexists with sharp two-way volatility. The coming week (July 27–31) hands Korean equities the busiest event calendar of the summer, as the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and second-quarter results from global Big Tech names cluster into the same five sessions. After a prior week that swung by more than ±5% on single days, the key question is whether that extreme volatility persists or whether the market finally sets a direction as it digests these events. 📊 Last Week Market Summary Last week the KOSPI closed the week up +0.71% at the 6,690 level, but the internals told a roller-coaster story: daily moves of -4.46% → +3.56% → +0.74% → +4.40% → -5.72% . Intraday the in...

📌 One-Line Summary Following the previous session's sharp rally in both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ ( +4.40% / +5.22% ), an overnight plunge in US tech stocks (Nasdaq -2.15% ) is expected to expose the Korean market to profit-taking pressure and heightened volatility today. A stabilizing won at the 1,470 level and supportive foreign inflows may cushion the downside. 🌙 Overnight Markets Wall Street closed broadly lower overnight, with all three major indices in the red. The Nasdaq led the decline at -2.15% , as a tech-centered selloff dominated trading. Big-tech earnings scrutiny and stretched valuations appear to have dampened risk appetite. Because Korean equities had just reclaimed the KOSPI 7,000 mark on the back of strong semiconductor buying in the prior session, the weakness in US tech is likely to weigh on domestic chipmakers and growth names today. Index Close Change Dow Jones 51,711.65 -0.97% S&P 500 7,408.30 -1.21% Nasdaq 25,137.69 -2.15% That said, the previous domes...

📌 One-Line Summary US indices pulled back modestly overnight amid caution ahead of Big Tech earnings, but bargain-hunting in semiconductors and a sharp jump in SK Hynix's US ADR are expected to support Korean chip large-caps. With the won hovering near 1,476 per dollar capping foreign inflows, the KOSPI is likely to attempt a foothold above the 7,000 line in a wait-and-see session, with the ECB's 21:15 KST rate decision the day's biggest swing factor. 🌙 Overnight Markets US equities closed mixed and modestly lower in the previous session. Profit-taking after the recent rally, along with a cautious stance heading into the Big Tech earnings season, weighed on sentiment. However, the declines were shallow, so the drag on Korean stocks today is expected to be limited, and bargain-hunting flows into semiconductors held firm. Index Close Change S&P 500 7,498.96 -0.14% Nasdaq 25,690.90 -0.57% Dow Jones 52,218.58 -0.01% Notably, SK Hynix's US-listed American Deposita...

📌 One-Line Summary With overnight risk appetite restored by a US tech rebound (Nasdaq +1.29% ), today's session is set to be a tug-of-war between whether the KOSPI can extend its +3.56% surge from the previous day and the persistent pressure of the won trading in the 1,480 range. 🌙 Overnight Markets Wall Street's three major indices all closed higher overnight. The semiconductor "AI peak-out" fears that had recently weighed on markets eased, drawing in a technology-led bargain-hunting bid. The Nasdaq in particular led the strength with a +1.29% gain, spearheading the recovery in risk sentiment. Index Close Change S&P 500 7,509.20 +0.89% Nasdaq 25,837.21 +1.29% Dow Jones 52,224.64 +0.74% The fact that the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted the strongest gain suggests that dip-buying is reviving in the heavily-battered semiconductor and AI names. That said, the KOSPI has just passed through a stretch of extreme volatility — breaking below the 7,000 level before ...

📌 One-Line Summary After a semiconductor "peak-out" scare sent the KOSPI tumbling -4.46% in the previous session, overnight US markets held up with only mild losses — so today the key question is whether the Korean market can stage an oversold, technical rebound. 🌙 Overnight Markets US equities avoided a sharp sell-off overnight, closing with only limited declines despite continued weakness in chip names. This stood in contrast to the Korean market, which suffered an "independent plunge" in the prior session. However, the SK Hynix American Depositary Receipt (ADR) tumbled 13.69% to $152.31 (per local media reports), signaling that sentiment toward the semiconductor sector remains fragile and that domestic large-cap chip stocks may face selling pressure at the open. Index Close Change S&P 500 7,443.28 -0.19% Nasdaq 25,508.07 -0.05% Dow Jones 51,839.26 -0.59% The Nasdaq essentially held flat at -0.05% , while the S&P 500 and Dow posted contained pullbacks ...