[2026.05/18~05/22] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | NVIDIA Earnings & FOMC Minutes to Decide KOSPI 8,000 Re-test
📌 Next Week Outlook Summary
Wednesday, May 20 looms as the pivot of next week for the Korean stock market: NVIDIA's Q1 earnings release and the April FOMC Meeting Minutes are scheduled on the very same day, framing whether the KOSPI re-tests the historic 8,000 line or extends the sharp Friday pullback. The USD/KRW battle around the 1,500 threshold and the Samsung Electronics labor union strike negotiations are set to drive foreign investor flows.
📊 Last Week Market Summary
The Korean market made history last week by briefly touching the 8,000 level on the KOSPI for the first time ever, only to be hit by a Friday (May 15) profit-taking tsunami that erased the entire weekly gain in a single session, sending the index down -6.12% that day. The KOSDAQ saw an even sharper weekly drop of -6.85%, and whether the index can defend the 1,100 line will be a key swing factor for next week. Profit-taking near all-time highs is natural, but the fact that a single session wiped out the week's gains signals significant short-term fatigue in upward momentum.
Weekly Performance Snapshot
| Index | Open | High | Low | Close | Weekly Change | Weekly Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,775.31 | 8,046.78 | 7,371.68 | 7,493.18 | -3.63% | 422,672.2만 |
| KOSDAQ | 1,212.88 | 1,225.29 | 1,110.16 | 1,129.82 | -6.85% | 605,518.4만 |
Day-by-Day Performance
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Change | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 (Mon) | 7,822.24 | +4.32% | 1,207.34 | -0.03% |
| 05/12 (Tue) | 7,643.15 | -2.29% | 1,179.29 | -2.32% |
| 05/13 (Wed) | 7,844.01 | +2.63% | 1,176.93 | -0.20% |
| 05/14 (Thu) | 7,981.41 | +1.75% | 1,191.09 | +1.20% |
| 05/15 (Fri) | 7,493.18 | -6.12% | 1,129.82 | -5.14% |
Intraday on Thursday, the KOSPI surged as high as 8,046.78, breaking the 8,000 mark for the very first time. But Friday's coordinated profit-taking by foreigners and institutions detonated, returning the entire weekly advance in a single session. After a powerful +4.32% start on Monday and choppy mid-week action, the index made fresh record highs through Thursday before Friday's -6.12% plunge — a textbook volatile market pattern. The KOSDAQ similarly climbed to 1,225 before retreating to 1,129.82, with weekly amplitude exceeding the KOSPI as small/mid caps absorbed concentrated profit-taking. Notably, KOSDAQ weekly volume crossed 6 billion shares, signaling explosive turnover and short-term trading fatigue.
🌙 Global Market Trends
U.S. equities closed broadly lower on Friday (May 15, local time), foreshadowing additional downside pressure on Korean stocks. Inflation caution and softer macro data combined with positioning-related profit-taking ahead of next week's NVIDIA earnings and FOMC Minutes. The fact that the NASDAQ led the decline suggests that supply pressure in AI/semiconductor names has yet to be cleared.
U.S. Three Major Indices (May 15 Close)
| Index | Close | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,408.50 | -1.24% |
| NASDAQ | 26,225.14 | -1.54% |
| DOW | 49,526.17 | -1.07% |
FX & Commodities
- USD/KRW: 1,497.76 — approaching the 1,500 line again, creating an unfavorable environment for foreign investor flows. A re-break above 1,500 could intensify risk-off behavior by foreign funds and add selling pressure to large-cap KOSPI names.
- WTI Crude Oil: data unit verification required — still, oil price volatility, combined with the Samsung Electronics strike narrative, may emerge as a key variable. Middle East geopolitical risk and OPEC+ supply policy shifts should be monitored in parallel.
- Bitcoin (BTC): data collection error — verification pending
The NASDAQ's -1.54% drop reflects concentrated profit-taking in AI semiconductor and big-tech names. If NVIDIA's earnings fail to surprise meaningfully, fatigue in the global AI cycle could be brought into the open. The 7,400 line on the S&P 500 and the 26,000 area on the NASDAQ could serve as short-term support next week; whether buyers step in at these levels will be tied to the direction of foreign flows into Korea.
🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week
1. AI Semiconductors — NVIDIA Earnings Momentum (Watch)
NVIDIA's Q1 earnings on May 20 (Wed) are the single biggest variable shaping next week's global AI trajectory. An earnings beat combined with raised data-center guidance could send strong buying flows into the HBM/CXL/foundry value chain (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hanmi Semiconductor, etc.). Conversely, a guidance miss could become the trigger extending Friday's plunge. Key items to watch include data-center revenue growth and color on next-generation GPU shipments (Blackwell, Rubin). Korean memory names will trade directly off commentary on HBM3E/HBM4 adoption share.
2. Samsung Electronics Strike Risk (Caution)
Whether the Samsung Electronics labor union strike materializes — flagged by sell-side as a top swing factor — will directly impact the supply-demand dynamics of the KOSPI's largest market cap stock. A visible strike acts as a short-term discount factor, while a negotiated settlement could trigger a relief rally. Combined with NVIDIA's earnings, this dynamic could amplify volatility. If a strike disrupts memory production, global memory pricing could see short-term effects, raising the question of potential beneficial impact on competitors like SK Hynix and Micron.
3. FOMC Minutes & Macro — Rates & FX (Caution)
The April FOMC Meeting Minutes released at 03:00 KST on May 21 (Thu) are expected to trigger a reassessment of the rate-cut path for the year. The same day brings Flash PMI readings from major economies and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (forecast 17.9 vs. prior 26.7), making it a concentrated macro check-up. Any hawkish signal could combine with further USD/KRW upside and renewed foreign selling pressure. The expected sharp deceleration in the Philly Fed reading may signal that U.S. manufacturing has passed its cyclical peak, affecting pricing in cyclical sectors.
4. Google I/O 2026 — Big Tech & AI Services (Bullish Expectation)
Google I/O 2026 kicks off May 19–20 with new AI model and device announcements expected, potentially providing momentum for Korean AI software, cloud, and advertising names (NAVER, Kakao, NHN, etc.). During the same window, U.S. retailers Home Depot (5/19) and Walmart (5/22) report earnings, providing consumer momentum checkpoints. Announcements around AI agents, on-device AI, and new Pixel hardware could form short-term themes for Korean AI software and generative AI names.
🎯 Scenario Outlook
📈 Bull Scenario
If NVIDIA beats consensus with solid data-center guidance and the FOMC Minutes are interpreted as more dovish than expected, the KOSPI could recover the 7,600 line and re-attempt to settle above 8,000. Should Samsung's strike negotiations also reach a settlement, foreign buying could turn positive and a weekly gain of more than +3% is feasible. In this scenario, semiconductor and AI leadership would extend, with the KOSDAQ also attempting to reclaim 1,200 as small/mid caps catch up.
➖ Neutral Scenario
If NVIDIA's results match consensus and FOMC Minutes reaffirm a wait-and-see stance, the KOSPI would likely trade in a 7,400–7,700 range and the KOSDAQ in 1,100–1,180, with stock-specific action dominating. Foreign flows would be neutral to mildly positive, and USD/KRW would oscillate around 1,490–1,500. In this case, individual stock momentum would matter more than index direction — AI software themes tied to Google I/O and small/mid-cap earnings late-season winners could attract focus.
📉 Bear Scenario
If NVIDIA disappoints on guidance, the FOMC Minutes are hawkish, and the Samsung strike materializes, Friday's plunge could extend, putting the KOSPI at risk of falling to 7,300 and the KOSDAQ breaking 1,100. If USD/KRW breaches 1,510, foreign selling could expand and deepen the correction — raising cash for hedging purposes would warrant consideration. For the KOSDAQ, a break below 1,100 could quickly extend to 1,080–1,050, so small/mid-cap heavy investors should set clear stop and take-profit levels.
📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule
Global Major Economic Events (High Impact)
| Date (KST) | Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19 (Tue) | 15:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change | 25.9K | 26.8K |
| 5/19 (Tue) | 21:30 | CAD | CPI m/m | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 5/20 (Wed) | 15:00 | GBP | CPI y/y | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| 5/21 (Thu) | 03:00 | USD | ★FOMC Meeting Minutes | - | - |
| 5/21 (Thu) | 10:30 | AUD | Employment Change | 15.7K | 17.9K |
| 5/21 (Thu) | 10:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 5/21 (Thu) | 17:30 | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 53.0 | 53.6 |
| 5/21 (Thu) | 17:30 | GBP | Flash Services PMI | 51.7 | 52.0 |
Key Earnings & Events Schedule
- 5/18 (Mon): U.S. May NAHB Housing Market Index, China April Industrial Production & Retail Sales — China data influences Korean chemicals, steel, and China-consumption names
- 5/19 (Tue): Japan Q1 GDP, Google I/O 2026 opens (~5/20), Home Depot earnings — weak Japan GDP could weigh on JPY, with KRW potentially tracking
- 5/20 (Wed): ★NVIDIA Q1 Earnings, ★U.S. April FOMC Minutes, China PBoC LPR decision — the week's biggest pivot
- 5/21 (Thu): Korea/U.S./Europe Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI, U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (forecast 17.9 vs. prior 26.7), Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 210K)
- 5/22 (Fri): U.S. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 48.2), Walmart earnings, Canada/UK Retail Sales — U.S. consumer momentum checkpoint
Domestic Earnings & Event Summary
According to domestic and foreign media coverage, the highest-attention event for Korean equities next week is the post-NVIDIA-earnings (5/20) move in the after-hours and next-day trading of semiconductor and HBM value-chain names. Additionally, the reaction in U.S. Treasury yields and USD/KRW following the April FOMC Minutes will likely set the direction of foreign flows. The expected sub-50 print in the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (48.2) keeping the indicator in recessionary territory could also weigh on risk assets. Domestically, the progress of Samsung Electronics' labor negotiations and late-cycle Q1 earnings surprises among small/mid caps could provide trading clues.
⚡ Investment Checkpoints
- NVIDIA's earnings and guidance will set the direction for the HBM/memory value chain next week — concentrated monitoring of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix flows is warranted. Watch keywords like "data center," "sovereign AI," and "Blackwell shipments" in management commentary.
- Whether USD/KRW re-breaches 1,500 is the key pivot for foreign flows. A break above 1,510 risks accelerated foreign selling; a break below 1,490 could open the door for foreign net buying.
- Progress on Samsung Electronics labor negotiations will hit the short-term flow of the KOSPI's largest stock directly. Visible strike action signals a short-term discount; a settlement signals a relief rally.
- The FOMC Minutes' commentary on inflation and the rate-cut path warrants attention. Hawkish signals would likely come with higher bond yields, FX, and small/mid-cap volatility.
- The KOSPI's battle around support at 7,400 and resistance at 7,700–7,800 is critical. A break below 7,400 opens the door to further downside toward 7,200.
- KOSDAQ defense of the 1,100 line is also key. After a weekly drop of -6.85%, the index sits at the crossroads between a technical bounce and further correction — a break below 1,100 could extend to 1,080–1,050.
- China April Industrial Production / Retail Sales and the LPR decision may drive short-term action in chemicals, steel, and China-consumption names. Signs of recovery in China could spark a bounce in long-neglected China-related names.
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. With NVIDIA earnings, FOMC Minutes, and the Samsung Electronics labor issue all converging in the same week, betting on a single scenario is discouraged; staggered positioning and cash management are recommended. Should key inflection points emerge — USD/KRW re-breaking 1,500, the KOSPI losing 7,400, or the KOSDAQ breaking 1,100 — prepare for immediate risk management. Volatility near all-time highs typically amplifies the risks of leveraged bets and single-stock concentration.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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