[2026.06/22~06/26] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | Micron Earnings & US Core PCE to Decide KOSPI 9,000

📌 Next Week Outlook Summary

After an extreme decoupling last week — the KOSPI surged +6.17% to break the 9,000 level for the first time in history while the KOSDAQ plunged -7.78% — next week's direction hinges on two events: Micron's earnings on June 24 (US) and the US May Core PCE on June 25. Together they are likely to set the tone for the global memory cycle and Fed policy expectations.

📊 Last Week Market Summary

Over the past week (June 15–19), Korean equities staged a historic divergence. Driven by a concentration into large-cap semiconductor stocks, the KOSPI broke above 9,000 for the first time ever, while the KOSDAQ moved in the opposite direction as small- and mid-cap growth names were sold off.

Index	Weekly Open	Weekly Close	Weekly High	Weekly Low	Weekly Change
KOSPI	8,526.12	9,052.42	9,385.59	8,450.24	+6.17%
KOSDAQ	1,048.19	966.59	1,054.32	946.15	-7.78%

Weekly trading volume was approximately 270,236.7만 shares on the KOSPI and 324,760.2만 shares on the KOSDAQ. The KOSPI was strong enough to touch an intraday high of 9,385, whereas the KOSDAQ slid all the way to a low of 946 — a stark contrast in sentiment between the two markets.

📅 Daily Performance

Date	KOSPI Close	KOSPI Change	KOSDAQ Close	KOSDAQ Change
06/15	8,545.98	+5.20%	1,034.03	+0.48%
06/16	8,726.60	+2.11%	1,018.68	-1.48%
06/17	8,864.24	+1.58%	1,031.96	+1.30%
06/18	9,063.84	+2.25%	1,000.93	-3.01%
06/19	9,052.42	-0.13%	966.59	-3.43%

The KOSPI opened the week with a +5.20% surge on Monday and extended gains through midweek before pausing on Friday. The KOSDAQ, by contrast, saw losses deepen into the back half of the week, falling more than 6% over Thursday and Friday combined — clear evidence of capital rotating into large caps and out of small caps simultaneously.

🌙 Global Market Trends

On the final trading day of last week, US equities closed firmer on tech-led strength, offering a supportive backdrop for Korean semiconductor and AI-related names.

Index	Close	Change
S&P 500	7,500.58	+1.08%
NASDAQ	26,517.93	+1.91%
Dow Jones	51,564.70	+0.14%

The NASDAQ led with a +1.91% gain, confirming that AI and semiconductor investment momentum remains intact. The Dow's modest +0.14% rise, however, shows that the gap between mega-cap tech and traditional industrials persists in the US market as well.

💱 FX & Commodities

The USD/KRW exchange rate held near the 1,530 mark at 1,529.89, continuing its elevated trajectory. Cumulative foreign net selling of roughly KRW 110 trillion year-to-date is the key driver behind the won's weakness. A renewed break above the psychological 1,550 resistance could trigger another cycle of authorities' intervention and accelerated foreign selling. (Crude oil and Bitcoin figures in the collected data contain anomalies/missing values, so they are referenced only with caution in this analysis.)

🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week

1. Semiconductors / Memory — Micron Earnings (Focus)

This is the core axis that drove last week's KOSPI surge. Micron's results, released after the US market close on June 24 (local time), are the single biggest variable for the memory price uptrend and the broader global semiconductor flow, and will likely determine the direction of large-cap chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With the NASDAQ providing a supportive backdrop, an earnings surprise could become the engine for the KOSPI to consolidate above 9,000.

2. FX-Sensitive Stocks & Foreign Flows (Caution)

An exchange rate stuck in the 1,530 range and cumulative foreign net selling of around KRW 110 trillion this year remain persistent headwinds. Whether the rate breaks back above 1,550 and whether foreign investors turn buyers are the key drivers of index volatility, making differentiation between exporters and FX-sensitive names unavoidable.

3. KOSDAQ Small/Mid-Cap Growth Stocks (Caution)

A weekly plunge of -7.78% has pushed the KOSDAQ into oversold territory. If the concentration into large caps eases, there is room for a technical rebound, but persistent supply-demand gaps leave it exposed to further weakness. For those eyeing a short-term bounce, the prudent approach is to wait for a clear sign of flows turning before stepping in.

4. AI / Big-Tech-Linked Stocks (Focus)

The NASDAQ's +1.91% strength and the ongoing expansion of AI investment keep momentum alive. Domestic AI software and semiconductor value-chain names tied to US big-tech moves warrant attention.

🎯 Scenario Outlook

• Bull Case: If Micron's earnings beat market expectations and the US May Core PCE comes in at or below the 0.3% forecast, semiconductors could lead the KOSPI to settle above 9,000, the won could stabilize, and foreign selling could ease. The KOSDAQ may join in an oversold rebound.
• Neutral Case: The decoupling of strong large-cap chips and a weak KOSDAQ persists, with the KOSPI trading in a range around 9,000. Until investors digest the Micron and PCE results, a wait-and-see, stock-by-stock differentiation pattern likely prevails.
• Bear Case: If Core PCE comes in above expectations and revives Fed-tightening fears, and the won breaks back above 1,550, foreign selling could accelerate and drag the KOSPI into a correction as last week's sharp gains are taken as profit. The KOSDAQ would be exposed to additional steep losses.

📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule

🌍 Major Global Indicators (High impact, KST)

Date / Time (KST)	Country	Event	Forecast / Previous
6/22 (Mon) 21:30	Canada	CPI m/m	0.7% / 0.4%
6/22 (Mon) 21:30	Canada	Median CPI y/y	2.1% / 2.1%
6/22 (Mon) 21:30	Canada	Trimmed CPI y/y	2.0% / 2.0%
6/24 (Wed) 10:30	Australia	CPI m/m	-0.4% / 0.4%
6/24 (Wed) 10:30	Australia	CPI y/y	4.3% / 4.2%
6/24 (Wed) 10:30	Australia	Trimmed Mean CPI m/m	0.3% / 0.3%
6/25 (Thu) 10:30	Australia	Employment Change	30.3K / -18.6K
6/25 (Thu) 10:30	Australia	Unemployment Rate	4.4% / 4.5%
6/25 (Thu) 21:30	US	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.3% / 0.2%
6/25 (Thu) 21:30	US	Final GDP q/q	1.6% / 1.6%

The clear highlight of the global calendar is the US May Core PCE on June 25 (forecast 0.3%). As the Fed's most closely watched inflation gauge, its outcome could substantially reset policy expectations. On June 23 (Tue), June Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs for Europe and the US are released simultaneously, and on June 26 (Fri) Japan's Tokyo Core CPI and the revised US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are due.

📈 Key Earnings Schedule

• Micron — Earnings after the US market close on June 24 (local time). Widely seen as the "semiconductor weathervane" that will steer the memory price uptrend and the global chip-stock flow, this is the single most-watched event of next week.
• The US final Q1 GDP (June 25) and May PCE are released on the same day, making it a pivotal moment to check growth and inflation simultaneously.

⚡ Investment Checkpoints

• Whether the KOSPI (chips) vs. KOSDAQ (small caps) decoupling persists or narrows
• A break of the USD/KRW 1,550 resistance and any signal of a turn in foreign flows
• Semiconductor cycle momentum to be confirmed by Micron's earnings and memory prices
• A reset of Fed policy expectations following the US May Core PCE result
• Whether the KOSPI can settle above 9,000 and any profit-taking pressure after its sharp run-up

⚠️ Investment Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. As last week's KOSPI surge and KOSDAQ plunge illustrate, the current market is highly volatile with extreme stock-by-stock differentiation. Sharp price swings can occur around major events such as Micron's earnings and the US Core PCE, so all investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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