[2026-07-31] Korea Stock Market Morning Preview | KOSPI Technical Rebound on Wall Street Rally & FOMC Hold

📌 One-Line Summary

Wall Street rallied sharply overnight (Nasdaq +2.78%) as the FOMC held rates steady, setting the stage for a technical rebound attempt in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ after last week's semiconductor-driven sell-off pushed them into oversold territory. The Bank of Japan decision at 11:30 KST and lingering chip-sector volatility remain the key swing factors for today.

🌙 Overnight Markets

U.S. equities closed sharply higher across all three major indices overnight, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the charge, up +2.78%. The immediate catalyst was the FOMC's decision to hold the benchmark rate at 3.75% (in line with forecasts), which eased tightening concerns. This provides a rebound rationale for Korean equities, which had fallen into oversold territory last week amid a semiconductor-led plunge, a sidecar trigger, and the KOSPI breaking below the 6,000 level.

Index	Close	Change
S&P 500	7,437.63	+1.66%
Nasdaq	25,122.18	+2.78%
Dow Jones	52,208.06	+1.19%

That said, until the profitability of U.S. Big Tech's AI investments is confirmed, elevated volatility in the semiconductor sector may persist, so the upside for today's rebound could be capped. For reference, the KOSPI closed the previous session at 5,593.56 (-1.23%) and the KOSDAQ at 644.78 (-2.70%).

💱 FX & Commodities

The USD/KRW exchange rate eased to 1,421.48 as of the previous overnight close, reflecting a firmer won and a stabilizing tone. The Fed's rate hold, combined with net buying of Korean equities by foreign investors, is simultaneously anchoring the currency and providing support for the stock market. A lower exchange rate is favorable for foreign flows and is expected to be a positive factor for today's rebound attempt. Bitcoin is hovering around the mid-$64,000 range (approximately $64,940) in a wait-and-see mode, while crude oil remains stable with no major shocks.

🔥 Today's Key Themes & Sectors

1. Semiconductors (SK hynix & Samsung Electronics)

Despite SK hynix posting record earnings, volatility widened sharply last week, including a steep drop in its ADR. The overnight Nasdaq rally raises hopes for a technical rebound, but expectations may continue to reset until AI investment profitability is confirmed, suggesting a range-bound, direction-seeking phase.

2. Large Caps Benefiting from Foreign Buying

The weaker exchange rate and inflow of foreign net buying are expected to draw bargain-hunting demand toward KOSPI large caps. Watch whether flows concentrate on quality large caps that were oversold during last week's plunge.

3. FX-Sensitive Stocks (Exporters vs. Domestic Plays)

In a stronger-won environment, margin pressure on exporters and benefits for domestic and raw-material-importing names may diverge, so investors should watch for sector differentiation. Return dispersion across sectors could become pronounced depending on the direction of the currency.

🎯 Scenario Outlook

Scenario	Description
Bull	Buoyed by the Wall Street rally, the FOMC hold, and a stable currency, foreign net buying continues and the KOSPI recovers the 5,700 level while the KOSDAQ reclaims 660 in a rebound rally. Oversold bargain-hunting concentrates on beaten-down semiconductors and large caps.
Neutral	The market opens higher on the U.S. tailwind but gives back gains amid the morning BOJ decision and lingering doubts over chip earnings, trading in a tight range around the 5,600 level. A stock- and sector-specific, differentiated session.
Bear	After a technical rebound, profit-taking, renewed semiconductor volatility, and an unexpected BOJ move erode gains, with the KOSPI attempting to break back below 5,500 and the KOSDAQ below 630.

On key technical levels, watch the KOSPI's support at 5,500 and resistance at 5,700, and the KOSDAQ's support at 630 and resistance at 660.

⚡ Key Checkpoints for Today

• The BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting result at 11:30 KST and the Governor's press conference at 14:30 — watch for volatility in the yen and Asian equities.
• Whether foreign net buying persists, and whether USD/KRW stabilizes below the 1,420 line.
• The strength of the rebound in semiconductor large caps such as SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, and institutional/foreign flows.
• The durability of the technical rebound following last week's plunge — whether the KOSPI attempts to reclaim the 5,700 resistance line.

📅 Today's Economic Events

Global (High Impact)

Time (KST)	Country	Event	Forecast/Previous
11:30	Japan	BOJ Policy Rate	<1.00% / <1.00%
11:30	Japan	Monetary Policy Statement	- / -
11:31	Japan	BOJ Outlook Report	- / -
14:30	Japan	BOJ Press Conference	- / -
21:30	Canada	GDP m/m	0.2% / 0.5%

Today's swing factor for Asian equities is the cluster of BOJ events concentrated in the morning. A rate hold (<1.00%) is likely, but the tone of the Outlook Report and the Governor's press conference could sway the yen and KOSPI flows. Meanwhile, the U.S. FOMC (rate held at 3.75%), Advance GDP, and Core PCE that concluded overnight have already been reflected in the overnight session.

Domestic

No major DART disclosures are confirmed for today. Individual corporate filings and semiconductor-related news flow should be monitored intraday.

⚠️ Investment Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. As last week's semiconductor-driven plunge and sidecar trigger demonstrated, the current market is highly volatile. A technical rebound may differ from a genuine trend reversal, and a cautious approach is warranted until the morning BOJ decision and confirmation of U.S. Big Tech AI profitability. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor — please practice diversification and risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Note: the next trading day is Monday (8/3) following the weekend.

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