[2026.07/06~07/10] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | Samsung Q2 Earnings & FOMC Minutes in Focus
📌 Next Week Outlook Summary
After a roller-coaster week driven by a "Meta-shock" in semiconductors, the KOSPI now faces Samsung Electronics' Q2 preliminary earnings as the single biggest swing factor. With the FOMC meeting minutes due on July 9 and the won hovering in the elevated 1,530 range, next week is likely to bring an earnings-differentiated, high-volatility market.
📊 Last Week Market Summary
Last week Korean equities were a genuine roller-coaster. The KOSPI plunged -7.89% in a single session on July 2 amid a "Meta-shock," triggering sell-side sidecars on both boards, before rebounding +5.76% on July 3 as Samsung Electronics surged 8.22%. The KOSDAQ held up relatively better on a weekly basis despite a wide intraday range between its high (955) and low (824).
| Index | Weekly Close | Weekly High | Weekly Low | Weekly Change | Weekly Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 8,088.34 | 8,667.73 | 7,378.10 | -2.95% | 226,021.8만 |
| KOSDAQ | 868.41 | 955.45 | 823.98 | +0.93% | 300,052.4만 |
Daily Performance
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Change | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/29 | 8,394.65 | -0.20% | 920.57 | +8.13% |
| 06/30 | 8,476.48 | +0.97% | 916.18 | -0.48% |
| 07/01 | 8,303.41 | -2.04% | 929.35 | +1.44% |
| 07/02 | 7,648.09 | -7.89% | 866.72 | -6.74% |
| 07/03 | 8,088.34 | +5.76% | 868.41 | +0.19% |
🌙 Global Market Trends
Overnight, US markets were mixed. The Dow held firm while the Nasdaq slipped on continued profit-taking in tech, and the S&P 500 finished flat. The debate over excessive AI capital spending by Meta and other big-tech names continues to weigh on sentiment toward semiconductor and technology shares.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,900.07 | +1.14% |
| S&P 500 | 7,483.24 | 0.00% |
| Nasdaq | 25,832.67 | -0.80% |
As the Dow's strength suggests, the rotation into defensive and value names offers Korean investors a rationale to focus on oversold, earnings-backed stocks. That said, the Nasdaq's relative weakness could be a drag on Korea's large-cap semiconductor names and warrants close monitoring.
💱 FX & Commodities
- USD/KRW: 1,530.15 — The elevated won-dollar rate in the 1,500 range continues to underpin foreign selling pressure. Whether it can stabilize below 1,520 will be the key to a foreign-investor return next week.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Prices remain stable, keeping inflation and input-cost pressures limited for now.
🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week
1. Semiconductors (Samsung Q2 Earnings) — Watch
Samsung Electronics' Q2 preliminary earnings release is the single biggest catalyst next week. The stock has already priced in earnings-surprise hopes after jumping +8.22% (to KRW 309,500) in the prior session, but with the Meta-driven AI over-investment debate and semiconductor demand-slowdown fears both in play, the result could sharply tilt the market's direction — a genuine inflection point.
2. Oversold, Earnings-Solid Blue Chips — Expected to Rise
In a market rebounding from the Meta-shock plunge, rotation into quality names with upgraded Q2 earnings outlooks is expected. NH Investment & Securities also cited improving earnings estimates as an upside driver, so stocks with high earnings visibility deserve attention.
3. Rate-Sensitive Growth Stocks (Tech/Bio) — Caution
Rate wariness persists ahead of the July 9 FOMC minutes and US employment data. In an environment of a high won and rate uncertainty, growth stocks carrying heavy valuation burdens may see amplified volatility and warrant caution.
4. FX-Beneficiary Exporters — Watch
With the won lingering in the 1,530 range, large-cap exporters such as autos and shipbuilders may benefit from improved translated earnings. The offset is continued foreign-flow outflow pressure, which investors should keep in mind.
🎯 Scenario Outlook
📈 Bull Scenario
If Samsung's Q2 preliminary earnings meet market expectations (an earnings surprise) and the FOMC minutes read more dovish than anticipated, large-cap semiconductors could lead the KOSPI back toward 8,400, quickly recovering lost ground. Should the won stabilize below 1,520, a shift to net foreign buying is also possible.
➡️ Neutral Scenario
If Samsung's results merely match expectations and the FOMC minutes prove neutral, the KOSPI is likely to hold 8,000 as support and trade in an 8,000–8,400 range with stock-by-stock earnings differentiation. High FX costs and the semiconductor-demand debate would cap the upside.
📉 Bear Scenario
If Samsung disappoints or the Meta-driven demand-slowdown fears reignite and the FOMC minutes flag hawkish signals, renewed foreign selling could threaten the KOSPI's 7,800 line. A rebound in the won above 1,540 would deepen supply-demand deterioration — a downside risk to watch.
📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule
🌍 Major Global Indicators (High Impact)
| Date (KST) | Time | Country | Event | Forecast/Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 (Mon) | 23:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.2 / 54.5 |
| 07/08 (Wed) | 11:00 | New Zealand | Official Cash Rate (RBNZ) | 2.50% / 2.25% |
| 07/08 (Wed) | 11:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Rate Statement | - / - |
| 07/08 (Wed) | 12:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Press Conference | - / - |
| 07/09 (Thu) | 03:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | - / - |
| 07/10 (Fri) | 21:30 | Canada | Employment Change | 10.0K / 87.8K |
| 07/10 (Fri) | 21:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | 6.6% / 6.6% |
In addition, Medium-impact events are also on the calendar, including BOE Governor Bailey's speech and Canada's Ivey PMI (forecast 59.1 / previous 58.2) on July 7 (Tue), and US Unemployment Claims (forecast 218K / previous 215K) on July 9 (Thu).
📊 Earnings Calendar
The dominant catalyst for next week's Korean market is unquestionably Samsung Electronics' Q2 preliminary earnings. Markets are watching whether the uptrend — built on expectations of strong operating profit — can be sustained as the key variable for the week. Alongside how the AI over-investment debate affects the semiconductor cycle, the market's reaction to the earnings result is likely to set the tone for the entire week.
⚡ Investment Checkpoints
- Samsung Q2 preliminary earnings — Whether the earnings surprise continues will determine the direction of large-cap semiconductors and the KOSPI.
- USD/KRW holding the 1,530 range — A stabilization below 1,520 could signal a shift to net foreign buying.
- Meta-driven AI over-investment debate — Watch whether a Nasdaq tech correction spills over into Korean semiconductor and growth stocks.
- Rate-path signals in the July 9 FOMC minutes — A hawkish read could reignite volatility.
- The 8,000 support level — After last week's sidecar-triggering plunge, a failure to hold 8,000 raises the risk of further downside.
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. This is a week packed with major events — Samsung's preliminary earnings and the FOMC minutes — and index volatility could widen depending on the outcomes. Given that last week's swings were severe enough to trigger sidecars, all investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor, and prudent risk management is essential. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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