[2026.07/06~07/10] Korea Stock Market Weekly Review | KOSPI Plunges 8.7% on Chip Peak Fears, Rebounds Late on Semiconductor Rally
📊 This Week at a Glance
This week (Jul 6–Jul 10) the Korean stock market delivered a rollercoaster session. Fears of an AI and semiconductor peak, combined with anxiety surrounding Samsung Electronics' earnings, drove a sharp mid-week sell-off, before a late rebound powered by a U.S. chip rally and strong demand for SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR debut. KOSPI tumbled -8.68% for the week, while KOSDAQ held up relatively better at -3.34%.
| Index | Week Open | Week High | Week Low | Week Close | Week Volume | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 8,186.82 | 8,327.26 | 7,063.76 | 7,475.94 | 250,216.1만 | -8.68% |
| KOSDAQ | 866.40 | 872.12 | 778.17 | 837.43 | 258,434.1만 | -3.34% |
The USD/KRW exchange rate closed near 1,498.87 won, with the won hovering around the weak 1,500 level throughout the week. The gap between KOSPI's high (8,327) and low (7,064) exceeded 15%, marking an exceptionally volatile week.
📅 Daily Performance
The week traced a near 'V-shape' — a steep decline through the first three sessions followed by a strong two-day rebound.
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Chg | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 (Mon) | 8,051.33 | -0.46% | 847.07 | -2.46% |
| 07/07 (Tue) | 7,656.31 | -4.91% | 831.23 | -1.87% |
| 07/08 (Wed) | 7,246.79 | -5.35% | 785.00 | -5.56% |
| 07/09 (Thu) | 7,291.91 | +0.62% | 794.00 | +1.15% |
| 07/10 (Fri) | 7,475.94 | +2.52% | 837.43 | +5.47% |
📈 KOSPI Weekly Analysis
KOSPI opened at 8,186.82 and closed at 7,475.94, posting a weekly decline of -8.68%. Concerns over a peak in AI infrastructure investment (CAPEX peak-out) collided with a resurgent 'semiconductor peak' narrative tied to the Samsung Electronics earnings event, triggering back-to-back plunges of -4.91% on the 7th and -5.35% on the 8th, dragging the index to an intraday low of 7,063.76.
Throughout the sell-off, foreign investors unloaded large-scale net sales centered on SK Hynix (reported in the trillions of won for the week), weighing heavily on the index. However, after the slide halted with a +0.62% gain on the 9th, the 10th saw a +2.52% rebound — fueled by a second straight day of U.S. semiconductor gains and strong appetite for SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR listing — that even triggered a buy-side sidecar. Notably, despite Samsung Electronics posting a Q2 earnings beat above market expectations, the stock fell sharply immediately after the release, an unusual move as peak-out fears overrode the strong results.
📉 KOSDAQ Weekly Analysis
KOSDAQ fell -3.34% for the week, a smaller drop than KOSPI, closing at 837.43 from 866.40 with an intraday low of 778.17. After sinking to the high-700s with a -5.56% loss on the 8th, it rebounded strongly with +1.15% on the 9th and +5.47% on the 10th to reclaim the 800 level.
On the final session in particular, buying spread across semiconductor equipment names (PSK, Justem, Yesti) and small- to mid-cap growth stocks, producing a more resilient bounce than KOSPI. That said, a cluster of limit-down and sharp declines across HLB group biotech names capped the recovery.
🔥 Weekly Themes & Sectors
As large-cap semiconductors wobbled, capital rotated into small- and mid-cap themes and economically sensitive sectors. The week's top-performing sectors were as follows.
| Sector | Weekly Change |
|---|---|
| Stationery | +25.66% |
| Telecom Equipment | +10.00% |
| Handsets | +7.44% |
| Healthcare Technology | +7.37% |
| Construction | +6.20% |
| Electrical Equipment | +6.20% |
🔧 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (Up)
A sharp late-week rebound came on the back of the U.S. chip rally and expectations for SK Hynix's ADR debut. KOSDAQ equipment names led the bounce: PSK (+37,200 won), Justem (+2,490 won), Yesti (+6,550 won), and Gigalane (limit-up).
💊 HLB Biotech Group (Down)
HLB, Peptron, HLB Pharmaceutical, HLB Life Science, and HLB Therapeutics all plunged, with several hitting the daily limit-down. Group-wide bad news sharply chilled KOSDAQ biotech sentiment. Peptron recorded a limit-down (-47,700 won) and HLB a limit-down (-15,600 won).
✏️ Stationery & Telecom Equipment (Theme Rotation, Up)
Stationery (+25.66%), telecom equipment (+10.00%), and handsets (+7.44%) topped the weekly sector gainers, while individual small- and mid-cap theme stocks such as Monami, Kumho Tire, and Daegu Department Store surged to the daily limit-up.
⛽ Natural Gas Leveraged ETNs (Down)
Falling international natural gas prices sent leveraged natural gas futures ETNs from Samsung, Shinhan, KB, and Korea Investment to the top of the KOSPI decliners list.
💰 Foreign & Institutional Weekly Flow
Detailed weekly flow figures were not compiled, but based on news reporting, foreign investors kept up large-scale net selling centered on large-cap chipmakers such as SK Hynix, triggering the mid-week plunge. The Friday close report noted foreigners dumped roughly 1.7 trillion won in sell orders.
Retail and institutional investors, by contrast, responded with bargain-hunting, and institutional net buying in particular led the rebound at Friday's close. A significant portion of the foreign selling is interpreted as position adjustment ahead of SK Hynix's ADR listing.
🌍 Global Impact
U.S. equities reaffirmed expectations for AI infrastructure spending as semiconductor stocks rallied for a second straight session — the decisive catalyst behind the Korean market's late-week rebound.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +0.42% |
| Nasdaq | 26,281.61 | +0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 52,637.01 | +0.29% |
The USD/KRW rate ran high in the 1,498–1,506 range through the week, with persistent won weakness near the 1,500 level pressuring foreign flows. On the macro calendar, the week digested the U.S. ISM Services PMI, the RBNZ policy rate (forecast to rise to 2.50%), the FOMC meeting minutes, and Canadian employment data.
📋 This Week's Economic Indicators & Earnings
🌐 Key Global Indicators (High Impact)
| Date (KST) | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast / Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | USD | ISM Services PMI | TBD | 54.2 / 54.5 |
| 07/08 | NZD | Official Cash Rate | TBD | 2.50% / 2.25% |
| 07/08 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | TBD | - / - |
| 07/09 | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | TBD | - / - |
| 07/10 | CAD | Employment Change | TBD | 11.2K / 87.8K |
| 07/10 | CAD | Unemployment Rate | TBD | 6.6% / 6.6% |
🇰🇷 Domestic Disclosures
No separately compiled major DART disclosures were recorded this week.
💼 Earnings Highlights
- The pivotal driver shaking the Korean market this week was Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings release. Despite an earnings beat above market forecasts, the resurgent 'semiconductor peak' narrative sent the stock sharply lower for two days immediately after the release.
- Even amid a foreign selling barrage in the tens of trillions of won, KOSPI ultimately staged a late-week rebound, with the earnings of large-cap chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—and the durability of AI CAPEX—flagged as the key variables that will steer the index ahead.
- Analysts noted KOSPI's PER had fallen to around 6x, an 'all-time-level undervaluation,' while raising the prospect of Q2 earnings surprises among non-semiconductor export names.
🔮 Next Week Outlook & Key Risks
Next week (Jul 13–Jul 17), the biggest question is confirming the direction of large-cap chipmakers in the wake of SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR debut. With the Q2 earnings season kicking into full gear, attention will center on corporate results and whether AI CAPEX momentum persists.
- Large-cap chip direction: Foreign flows after the SK Hynix ADR listing and whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix share prices stabilize.
- Q2 earnings season: Sorting winners from losers among surprise-versus-shock names as the season ramps up.
- U.S. inflation data (CPI, etc.) and Fed officials' remarks, which could reprice the rate path.
- USD/KRW movement around the 1,500 level and its impact on foreign flows.
⚠️ Key Risk Factors
- Renewed debate over an AI/semiconductor CAPEX peak-out could widen large-cap volatility.
- Potential for continued foreign net selling of large-cap chip stocks.
- If USD/KRW breaks above 1,500, risk of foreign outflows and higher import-price pressure.
- Contagion of HLB and other biotech group bad news to broader KOSDAQ sentiment.
- Profit-taking and pullback risk following the sharp short-term rebound.
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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