[2026.07/13~07/17] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | US June CPI & Earnings Season Kick-Off Amid Semiconductor Peak-Out Debate
📌 Next Week Outlook Summary
After a rollercoaster plunge-and-rebound, the KOSPI closes at 7,475 heading into next week (Jul 13–17). The direction will be dictated by Tuesday's US June CPI, the earnings season that opens with major US banks, and the ongoing “peak-out” debate around semiconductor earnings growth.
📊 Last Week Market Summary (Jul 6–Jul 10)
Last week was a genuine rollercoaster for Korean equities. Fears over a semiconductor cycle top and an AI demand slowdown triggered by the so-called “Meta shock” hammered the market mid-week, driving the KOSPI down to the 7,246 level. However, strong bargain-hunting flows returned on Thursday and Friday, clawing back much of the loss. The KOSDAQ held up relatively better, recovering the 837 level.
| Index | Weekly Open | Weekly Close | Weekly High | Weekly Low | Weekly Change | Weekly Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 8,186.82 | 7,475.94 | 8,327.26 | 7,063.76 | -8.68% | 250,216.1만 |
| KOSDAQ | 866.40 | 837.43 | 872.12 | 778.17 | -3.34% | 258,434.1만 |
Daily Performance
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Change | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | 8,051.33 | -0.46% | 847.07 | -2.46% |
| 07/07 | 7,656.31 | -4.91% | 831.23 | -1.87% |
| 07/08 | 7,246.79 | -5.35% | 785.00 | -5.56% |
| 07/09 | 7,291.91 | +0.62% | 794.00 | +1.15% |
| 07/10 | 7,475.94 | +2.52% | 837.43 | +5.47% |
Over the first three sessions, the KOSPI cumulatively shed more than 10%, evaporating market capitalization in a flash. But after Thursday's reversal, the market wrapped up the week with a powerful Friday rebound—KOSPI +2.52% and KOSDAQ +5.47%. The KOSDAQ's sharp Friday bounce in particular illustrated just how strong the bargain-hunting appetite was for oversold names.
Looking at the index trajectory, the swing between the weekly high (KOSPI 8,327 / KOSDAQ 872) and the weekly low (KOSPI 7,064 / KOSDAQ 778) reached roughly 17% and 12% respectively. That underscores a week ruled by volatility itself rather than any clear direction. On a weekly basis the KOSPI recorded a steep -8.68% drop, but without the two-day rebound late in the week, the decline would have been far larger. The KOSDAQ's comparatively resilient -3.34% is attributed to its lighter weighting in large-cap semiconductor stocks, which cushioned it from the direct blow of the “Meta shock.” How the market fills the technical vacuum left by this plunge-and-rebound will be the key question next week.
🌙 Global Market Trends
Last Friday, Wall Street's three major indices rose in tandem, signaling a recovery in risk appetite. The move echoed the Thursday–Friday rebound in Korea and should provide a supportive backdrop for sentiment early next week. With the S&P 500 holding around 7,575 and the Nasdaq near 26,282—close to record territory—the resilience suggests that Korea's plunge stemmed more from domestic semiconductor valuation pressure than from any structural US-driven shock.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +0.42% |
| Nasdaq | 26,281.61 | +0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 52,637.01 | +0.29% |
💱 FX & Commodities
The USD/KRW rate stands at 1,498.87, with the elevated exchange rate hovering around the 1,500 mark. That said, analysts note that expectations of roughly USD 26.5 billion in inflows tied to SK Hynix's US ADR could exert downward pressure on the won. On oil, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report due Monday (Jul 13) is expected to offer directional clues. A high exchange rate is favorable for exporters such as automakers and shipbuilders, but it cuts both ways as a headwind for foreign investor flows. Whether the USD/KRW defends the 1,500 line and stabilizes lower—or turns higher again—will be an important signal for the direction of foreign trading next week. With the dollar's strength hinging on the US CPI outcome and the timing of SK Hynix ADR inflows overlapping, FX volatility could widen, so it is worth monitoring the relative rotation of flows between exporters and domestic/growth names.
🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week
1. Semiconductors (Caution)
The “peak-out” debate over the earnings growth rate of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, together with “AI over-investment” concerns, remains alive—making elevated volatility unavoidable throughout the earnings season. At the same time, given the strong bargain-hunting flows late last week, a technical rebound driven by oversold conditions is also in play. Because semiconductors carry an overwhelming weight in the KOSPI's market cap, the outcome of this debate will be the pivotal variable steering index direction. The fact that Samsung Electronics' share price swung sharply even after a record preliminary earnings print last week shows the market had already priced in much of the strength and reacted more sensitively to fears that “the growth rate could roll over.” Accordingly, next week the forward guidance and commentary on the durability of HBM/AI memory demand are more likely to drive share prices than the headline earnings figures themselves.
2. Banks / Financials (Watch)
On Jul 14–15, major US financials—JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock—report in succession, formally opening earnings season. Whether US banks deliver earnings surprises could feed through to global risk appetite and sentiment toward Korean financial stocks.
3. FX-Benefiting Exporters (Watch)
With the elevated exchange rate in the 1,500-won range persisting, export sectors that benefit from a weaker won—autos and shipbuilding among them—are expected to enjoy relative advantage. Amid heightened semiconductor volatility, flows could rotate toward exporters where earnings-improvement expectations exist.
4. AI Infrastructure / Data Centers (Caution)
The AI over-investment controversy triggered by the “Meta shock” persists, and volatility across the related value chain could be large, warranting a selective approach. Until earnings and capex guidance are confirmed, a stock-picking, sort-the-wheat-from-the-chaff market is likely to continue.
🎯 Scenario Outlook
▲ Bull Scenario
If the US June CPI on Jul 14 confirms the expected cooling (headline 3.8%) and bargain-hunting in semiconductors continues, Friday's rebound momentum could extend and the KOSPI may attempt to reclaim the 7,700–7,800 range.
■ Neutral Scenario
A wait-and-see market ahead of US bank earnings and the CPI outcome could prevail, keeping the KOSPI range-bound between 7,300 and 7,600.
▼ Bear Scenario
If the CPI comes in above expectations or semiconductor peak-out fears materialize, risk aversion could intensify and the KOSPI may retest support around the 7,000 level near last week's low (7,064). Because all three scenarios hinge heavily on the single variable of the Jul 14 US CPI, the early part of the week (Mon–Tue) is likely to see cautious, pre-event positioning. Rather than betting on direction, a strategy of responding after confirming the result is valid, and it seems prudent to refrain from hasty chase-buying or -selling ahead of the event.
📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule (Jul 13–Jul 17)
🌍 Key Global Economic Indicators (High Impact)
| Date | Time (KST) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 17:45 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | - | - |
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 21:30 | US | CPI y/y | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 21:30 | US | CPI m/m | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 21:30 | US | Core CPI y/y | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 21:30 | US | Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Jul 14 (Tue) | 23:00 | US | Fed Chair Testifies (Congress) | - | - |
| Jul 15 (Wed) | 21:30 | US | PPI m/m | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Jul 15 (Wed) | 21:30 | US | Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Jul 15 (Wed) | 22:45 | Canada | BOC Overnight Rate | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| Jul 15 (Wed) | 23:00 | US | Fed Chair Testifies (Day 2) | - | - |
| Jul 16 (Thu) | 15:00 | UK | GDP m/m | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Jul 16 (Thu) | 21:30 | US | Retail Sales / Philly Fed Mfg Index / Unemployment Claims | - | - |
| Jul 17 (Fri) | 23:00 | US | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 51.4 | 48.9 |
The single biggest highlight next week is unquestionably the US June CPI, released at 9:30 PM KST on Tuesday, Jul 14. Headline CPI is expected to cool to 3.8% y/y (from 4.2%) and core CPI to 2.8% (from 2.9%), so the outcome could send rate-cut expectations swinging sharply. The Fed Chair's semiannual congressional testimony, which also begins that day (through Jul 15), is another event that offers a read on the monetary policy stance. A softer-than-expected headline CPI could reinforce rate-cut hopes and prove favorable for risk assets broadly, whereas a sticky or rebounding core CPI could reignite “higher-for-longer” concerns. On Jul 15 (Wed), the June PPI will reconfirm the inflation trend, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) rate decision (expected to hold at 2.25%) is also due the same day, making it a week for a comprehensive check on the global monetary policy direction. Later in the week, US June retail sales and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Jul 16 (Thu), along with the preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment on Jul 17 (Fri, forecast 51.4 vs. previous 48.9), will be watched as gauges of consumption and confidence recovery.
🏢 Key Earnings Scheduled
- Jul 14 (Tue): JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo — the opening tape of major US bank earnings
- Jul 15 (Wed): ASML (world's No. 1 chip-equipment maker), Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock
In particular, the results and order guidance from ASML—the world's top semiconductor-equipment company—should provide direct clues to the “peak-out” debate around Korea's chip value chain and warrant close attention. Domestically, Korea's preliminary exports for the first 10 days of July are released on Jul 13 (Mon), offering a read on the direction of the export cycle.
⚡ Investment Checkpoints
- Semiconductor tug-of-war: Which side prevails—peak-out fears versus oversold bargain-hunting—is the crux of the index direction.
- FX & flows: Watch whether the USD/KRW defends the 1,500 line and how SK Hynix ADR inflows shift foreign investor positioning.
- US CPI & Fed testimony: The June CPI outcome and the Fed Chair's congressional testimony will ripple across global risk assets via shifting rate expectations and the Fed's stance.
- First earnings scorecard: Results from major US banks and ASML will set the tone for the entire earnings season.
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. In a volatile plunge-and-rebound market like last week's, expected scenarios can be overturned at any time, and volatility can widen sharply ahead of major events such as the US CPI and earnings releases. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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