[2026.07/20~07/24] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | KOSPI Rebound Test After Black Monday, Alphabet & Tesla Earnings and ECB in Focus

📌 Next Week Outlook Summary

After a brutal 'Black Monday' shock that dragged the KOSPI down -7.98% for the week to 6,820.60, all eyes turn to next week's U.S. Big Tech earnings — Alphabet, Tesla and Intel — and the ECB policy meeting. These events will decide whether Korean equities can shake off the semiconductor-led correction and find a foothold for a rebound.

📊 Last Week Market Summary

Korean equities delivered one of the most violent roller-coaster weeks in recent memory, as semiconductor peak-out fears collided with a 'Meta shock' that rattled global tech sentiment. The KOSPI opened the week with a -8.95% 'Black Monday' plunge on July 13, staged a sharp +6.24% rebound on July 15, then tumbled -6.37% again on July 16 to close the week down -7.98% at 6,820.60. With markets closed on July 17 for Constitution Day, the elevated volatility carried over into the new week unresolved.

Index	Week Open	Week Close	Week High	Week Low	Weekly Change	Weekly Volume
KOSPI	7,412.03	6,820.60	7,529.07	6,448.86	-7.98%	178,781.8만
KOSDAQ	839.72	791.84	867.38	749.76	-5.70%	209,818.9만

Daily Performance

Date	KOSPI Close	KOSPI Change	KOSDAQ Close	KOSDAQ Change
Mon 07/13	6,806.93	-8.95%	799.36	-4.55%
Tue 07/14	6,856.83	+0.73%	783.98	-1.92%
Wed 07/15	7,284.41	+6.24%	829.43	+5.80%
Thu 07/16	6,820.60	-6.37%	791.84	-4.53%
Fri 07/17	Market closed (Constitution Day)

Over the week the KOSPI swung more than 1,000 points, from a high of 7,529.07 to a low of 6,448.86, unable to establish a clear direction. The wild moves in large-cap semiconductor names were mirrored directly in the index, underscoring just how fragile investor sentiment had become. The KOSDAQ tracked the same pattern, sliding -5.70% for the week to 791.84.

🌙 Global Market Trends

Wall Street closed the prior session under pressure, with a tech-led pullback across the three major indices — a headwind for Korean equities as debate over semiconductor and AI valuations spreads across global markets.

Index	Close	Change
S&P 500	7,457.69	-1.01%
NASDAQ	25,520.24	-1.40%
Dow Jones	52,146.42	-0.77%

FX & Commodities

The USD/KRW exchange rate ended the prior session at 1,487.46, keeping the won in the elevated 1,500 zone. With foreign investors maintaining net selling, the currency's direction has become the pivotal swing factor for supply and demand. Dollar inflows tied to SK Hynix's U.S. ADR are cited as a source of downward pressure on the rate, but lingering uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy continues to support the topside. (Crude oil figures in the collected data contained an apparent anomaly likely stemming from a data error, so no judgment on oil is offered in this preview.)

🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week

1. Semiconductor & AI Valuation Peak Debate (Caution)

This was the core theme driving last week's plunge, as the 'Meta shock' and fears of a semiconductor earnings peak-out combined. Volatility in large caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has expanded sharply, and the direction from here could split dramatically depending on U.S. Big Tech earnings. A cautious approach is warranted — until the durability of the AI investment cycle is confirmed, elevated volatility in major chip names is likely to persist.

2. U.S. Big Tech Earnings Beneficiaries — Alphabet & Tesla (Watch)

Alphabet's earnings, due July 23 (U.S. time), are flagged as a potential rebound catalyst. Solid AI cloud and advertising results could send warmth flowing through to related domestic software and semiconductor value chains. With Tesla and Intel reporting the same day as U.S. Big Tech earnings season kicks into full gear, risk-asset sentiment could swing sharply on the outcomes.

3. High-FX Defensive & Export Plays (Watch)

With the won holding in the 1,500 range, currency tailwinds for export large caps such as automakers and shipbuilders could come into focus. That said, foreign supply and demand is tied to the direction of the exchange rate, so it is prudent to gauge whether the currency stabilizes before stepping in.

4. Oversold Bargain Hunting (Technical Rebound Buying) (Watch)

The -7.98% weekly drop that pushed the KOSPI to the 6,800 level raises the odds of technical rebound buying. On any midweek pullback, bargain hunters could support the downside of the index, making selective interest in oversold blue chips appear viable.

🎯 Scenario Outlook

📈 Bull Case

If Alphabet and Tesla earnings on July 23 beat market expectations and confirm the AI investment cycle is intact, strong rebound buying could flow into oversold semiconductor and tech names, with the KOSPI attempting to reclaim the 7,000 level. Currency stabilization alongside easing foreign net selling would add momentum to any bounce.

➡️ Neutral Case

With Big Tech results mixed and markets in wait-and-see mode ahead of the ECB and global data, the KOSPI is likely to grind within a wide, high-volatility 6,700–7,100 range as semiconductor peak fears and rebound buying battle for control.

📉 Bear Case

Should U.S. Big Tech earnings disappoint or guidance fall short, the semiconductor valuation-peak debate could reignite, reviving fears of another 'Black Monday.' If foreign selling and the high won combine, the KOSPI could test a downside break of the 6,500 level (the weekly low of 6,448) — a scenario that warrants vigilance.

📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule

Key Global Economic Events (High Impact)

Date (KST)	Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous
Mon 07/20	21:30	Canada	CPI m/m	-0.2%	1.0%
Mon 07/20	21:30	Canada	Median CPI y/y	2.1%	2.1%
Mon 07/20	21:30	Canada	Trimmed CPI y/y	2.0%	2.0%
Tue 07/21	07:45	New Zealand	CPI q/q	1.5%	0.9%
Tue 07/21	15:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.3K	31.2K
Wed 07/22	15:00	UK	CPI y/y	2.7%	2.8%
Thu 07/23	10:30	Australia	Employment Change	15.2K	40.3K
Thu 07/23	10:30	Australia	Unemployment Rate	4.4%	4.4%
Thu 07/23	21:15	Eurozone	ECB Main Refinancing Rate	2.40%	2.40%
Thu 07/23	21:15	Eurozone	Monetary Policy Statement	-	-
Thu 07/23	21:45	Eurozone	ECB Press Conference	-	-

Notable Earnings Announcements

• Thu 07/23 (U.S. time) — Alphabet (Google's parent), Tesla and Intel headline the ramp-up of U.S. Big Tech earnings season. These are viewed as the single biggest catalyst for gauging whether the AI investment cycle can be sustained.
• Beyond these, as the broader U.S. earnings season expands, results from semiconductor and software companies are expected to influence sentiment across Korea's related value chains.

The standout events of the week are unquestionably Alphabet and Tesla earnings on July 23 and the ECB policy meeting. The ECB is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 2.40%, but remarks from President Lagarde at the press conference could sway global risk-asset sentiment. On July 24, a run of July Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK will offer a check on the health of major economies.

⚡ Investment Checkpoints

• Alphabet & Tesla earnings (July 23) — whether they become the rebound catalyst that reverses the semiconductor-led correction; confirming the durability of the AI investment cycle is the key.
• USD/KRW at 1,500 — whether the elevated rate persists and the direction of foreign net selling; without currency stability, the sustainability of any index rebound may be limited.
• KOSPI support at 6,448 (weekly low) — a downside break risks further sharp declines, while a reclaim of the 7,000 level would signal a shift toward a rebound phase.
• ECB policy meeting and European Flash PMIs — watch their impact on global risk appetite.

⚠️ Investment Disclaimer

This post is a reference compiled from publicly available market data and news, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Korean equities are currently in an extremely volatile phase, swinging between 'Black Monday'-scale plunges and sharp rebounds, making forecasts especially difficult. With major events such as U.S. Big Tech earnings and the ECB meeting ahead, direction could diverge sharply, so investors should be particularly wary of aggressive chasing or excessive leverage.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

---

🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/