[2026.08/03~08/07] Korea Stock Market Weekly Preview | US Jobs Report & ISM PMI Set to Decide KOSPI Direction After Record Volatility
📌 Next Week Outlook Summary
After a week of record-breaking volatility, the first week of August (Aug 3–7) is shaping up to be a "direction-searching" period, with the US July jobs report, ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI, and semiconductor & big-tech earnings expected to set the tone. All eyes will be on whether the KOSPI's +17.91% rebound on July 31 can be sustained.
📊 Last Week Market Summary
Last week's Korean market was a genuine roller-coaster. The KOSPI plunged -10.84% on July 28 in a "Black Monday"-style crash, extended losses through July 29–30, and then surged +17.91% on July 31 to recover much of the damage. Even so, the benchmark closed the week down -3.10%, while the KOSDAQ ended -5.36%, leaving clear scars from the volatility.
| Index | Week Open | Week Close | Week High | Week Low | Weekly Return | Weekly Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,806.27 | 6,595.45 | 6,806.27 | 5,262.77 | -3.10% | 187,766.8만 |
| KOSDAQ | 760.54 | 719.76 | 780.39 | 630.99 | -5.36% | 246,219.6만 |
Daily Performance
| Date | KOSPI Close | KOSPI Change | KOSDAQ Close | KOSDAQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27 | 6,755.75 | +0.97% | 764.86 | +2.22% |
| 07/28 | 6,023.66 | -10.84% | 705.85 | -7.72% |
| 07/29 | 5,663.24 | -5.98% | 662.68 | -6.12% |
| 07/30 | 5,593.56 | -1.23% | 644.78 | -2.70% |
| 07/31 | 6,595.45 | +17.91% | 719.76 | +11.63% |
During the week the KOSPI sank as low as 5,262.77, breaking below not only the 7,000 mark but also the 6,000 level, before the final-session surge lifted it back to 6,595.45. News that regulators would fast-track curbs on single-stock leveraged products rattled investor sentiment, yet bargain-hunting flows drove a powerful rebound into the week's end — a defining feature of the session.
🌙 Global Market Trends
Overnight, the three major US indices all closed higher, signaling a partial recovery in risk appetite. The NASDAQ's outperformance in particular reflected renewed hopes for semiconductor and big-tech earnings, which could provide a springboard for Korea's heavily-sold chip and AI-related shares.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | +0.70% |
| NASDAQ | 25,373.85 | +1.00% |
| Dow Jones | 52,485.03 | +0.53% |
FX & Oil
The USD/KRW exchange rate stood at 1,436.6, drifting lower and stabilizing alongside recent net buying in Korean equities. A softer won creates a favorable backdrop for foreign investor flows and will be an important factor behind foreign trading direction next week. Note that the collected WTI crude oil figure (5.83) appears to be a data anomaly and should be treated with caution; in any case, oil-price swings are expected to have only a limited, sector-specific impact centered on refiners and chemicals. Bitcoin data was not captured in this collection.
🔥 Key Themes to Watch Next Week
1. Semiconductors & AI (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) — Watch
The NASDAQ's strength, chip earnings, and whether concerns over AI CAPEX (capital expenditure) can be dispelled are the biggest talking points for the week. Bargain-hunting flows may return to oversold large-cap chipmakers, and with US semiconductor and big-tech earnings continuing through the week, related names deserve close attention.
2. Volatility & Leverage-Regulation Plays — Caution
A spike in the VKOSPI (KOSPI 200 volatility index) and the fast-tracked regulation of single-stock leveraged products have squeezed speculative flows. Investors should stay wary of heightened volatility in stocks that swung sharply in both directions, and avoid aggressive chase-buying.
3. Rate- & FX-Sensitive Names (Banks, Brokers, Exporters) — Caution
Depending on the outcome of the US July jobs report on August 7, the direction of rates and the dollar could be reset, likely amplifying volatility in financials and exporters. Event-waiting sentiment is expected to strengthen as the week progresses.
4. Oversold Rebound Candidates — Watch
Watch whether the bargain-hunting demand confirmed in the July 31 surge rotates into the small- and mid-cap growth names that fell hardest. That said, judging whether this is a genuine trend reversal or merely a technical bounce will require confirmation from the early trading sessions.
🎯 Scenario Outlook
📈 Bull Case
If the US jobs report comes in "Goldilocks" (solid hiring plus tame wages) and ISM PMIs beat expectations, rate-cut hopes combined with strong chip earnings could carry the KOSPI toward a trend rebound aiming to reclaim the 6,800–7,000 zone (a bid to retake the 7,000 level).
➡️ Neutral Case
If the data lands in line with forecasts and US strength filters through only modestly, the KOSPI is likely to trade within a 6,300–6,700 range, digesting the post-crash rebound in a volatility-narrowing, direction-searching pattern.
📉 Bear Case
A jobs-report surprise (a hiring surge pushing rates back up), a weak ISM, or a re-emergence of geopolitical risk could see the market surrender its July 31 gains, dragging the KOSPI back down to the 5,200–6,000 zone with leverage-liquidation-driven volatility. With brokerage KOSPI forecasts spanning an extreme 5,200–7,600 range, the market remains open in either direction.
📅 Next Week's Economic Schedule
The week of August 3–7 is packed with US labor-market data, with Friday's (Aug 7) July jobs report the single biggest watershed.
Key Global Indicators (High-impact focus)
| Date | Time (KST) | Country | Event | Forecast/Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03 (Mon) | 23:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.0 / 53.3 |
| 08/05 (Wed) | 07:45 | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.1% / 0.2% |
| 08/05 (Wed) | 07:45 | NZD | Unemployment Rate | 5.4% / 5.3% |
| 08/07 (Fri) | 21:30 | USD | ★ Non-Farm Employment Change | 88K / 57K |
| 08/07 (Fri) | 21:30 | USD | ★ Unemployment Rate | 4.2% / 4.2% |
| 08/07 (Fri) | 21:30 | USD | ★ Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.3% / 0.3% |
| 08/07 (Fri) | 21:30 | CAD | Employment Change | 15.0K / 18.2K |
| 08/07 (Fri) | 21:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.5% / 6.5% |
Medium-impact events also dot the calendar, including the Aug 4 US JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 7.42M, prev. 7.59M), Aug 5 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 71K) and ISM Services PMI (forecast 54.5), Aug 6 US Unemployment Claims (forecast 205K), plus Aug 3 Swiss CPI (forecast -0.1%, prev. 0.0%), ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 70.0, prev. 73.0), and Aug 7 Canada Ivey PMI (forecast 55.4, prev. 56.2).
Earnings & Key Events
- US semiconductor and big-tech earnings releases continue through the week.
- A lock-up expiry following SpaceX's listing (about 20% of total, roughly 910 million shares) is scheduled, and the resulting supply overhang is being flagged as a potential burden.
- The US July jobs report is cited as the biggest single variable for the direction of global equities this week.
⚡ Investment Checkpoints
- Durability of the July 31 rebound: Use the early sessions to gauge whether the +17.91% surge marks a trend reversal or just a technical bounce.
- US July jobs report (Aug 7): A watershed for rates and the dollar — prepare for volatility to concentrate later in the week.
- Leverage-regulation fallout: Manage the risk of thinner liquidity and sharp swings tied to the fast-tracked single-stock leverage curbs.
- Extreme forecast band: With brokerage KOSPI targets ranging widely from 5,200 to 7,600, avoid over-aggressive chase-buying and panic-selling alike.
- USD/KRW & foreign flows: Watch whether the won holds its stabilization near 1,436.6 and monitor the direction of foreign net buying.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. In a stretch of record-setting volatility like last week's, forecasts are especially prone to error, and major events such as the US jobs report can trigger abrupt reversals in direction. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🇰🇷 Korean Version: https://kai-search.tistory.com/manage/posts/
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